General Discussion

I know this is too early but with the longlist now only seven days away, I think we should have a structure for people's shortlist choices.

You get six -- 10 points go to your first choice, then 5 down to 1 for the rest. Just to make things interesting, you can also add a seventh choice for an extra point.

Also, you can make two sets of selections -- your personal choice and your predictions of the judge's shortlist choice. If you are careful about identifying which is which, I will do my best to develop two different lists.

I do think there should be prizes. So I will put up 25 pounds at the online bookstore of your choice that will accept my credit card for the individual whose "personal" choice is closest to the official shortlist and another 25 pound prize for whomever is closest to predicting the official list. Please do me a favor and try to make your lists distinct.

I have every intention of taking part in this contest and will be posting my thoughts on this stream.

Good luck to all. Just to make things interesting, here is a bonus question (worth 15 points) that will close when the final winner is announced (which means that this contest could go on right to the end):

What book wins the 2009 Man Booker Prize?

KevinfromCanada's entry in that section of the contest is The Glass Room, by Simon Mawer.

I'm going to go with Hilary Mantel's Wolf Hall as the winner. (Of course, I have now jinxed poor Hilary and she'll end up being left off the longlist. Sorry!)

I assume the deadline is 27th July, Kevin? In other words, you want a guess at the shortlist before there is a longlist, correct?

Sorry for the confusion Ang.

Entries for the bonus question (a prediction of the winner) need to be submitted before the longlist is announced (and of course we won't know until the winner is announced if anyone has got this correct).

The shortlist predictions do not have to be made until after the longlist is announced on July 28 -- deadline for entries will be midnight Sept. 7 since the shortlist goes up Sept. 8. The bonus 15 points will apply only to the "personal" list, so we may or may not have a winner there as of Sept. 8. The second contest (predicting what the judges will choose) will be determined with their announcement on Sept. 8.

I've made this more complicated than I intended. Sorry about that.

Never too early and thanks for doing this Kevin.
Though I'm torn, I'm sticking with Wolf Hall too but only just, and over The Children's Book. Making that decision has been worse than being disembowelled and burned at the stake, but needs must and as I have a 100% record to maintain about never choosing the winner now I'm in pieces for Hilary Mantel, sorry Hilary.

Ok, here's my selections:

Personal List:

1. Rawi Hage - Cockroach
2. Adam Foulds – The Quickening Maze
3. The Wilderness - Samantha Harvey
4. Peter Akinti - Forest Gate
5. Brian Chikwava - Harare North
6. The Outlander - Gil Adamson
7. M J Hyland - This is How

Judges List:

1. Colm Toibin - Brooklyn
2. Kamila Shamsie - Burnt Shadows
3. Hilary Mantel - Wolf Hall
4. Amit Chaudhuri - The Immortals
5. Geoff Dyer - Jeff in Venice
6. How to Paint a Dead Man - Sarah Hall
7. The Little Stranger - Sarah Waters

Winner: Burnt Shadows - Shamsie

I think that the "Child 44" spot (for want of a better word) will become a feature of the Booker, though not necessarily always a thriller, and will essentially be a 'shock value' non-Booker publicity seeking token popularizer!! That's my theory anyway and am going for "Jeff in Venice" to fill the spot!

hmm my heart says Wolf Hall as I really want it to win but as i have only twice correctly predicted the winner and in both occasions it wasn't that I loved the books more that they seemed great compromise candidates (The Inheritance of Loss and The Gathering), I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the 2009 Booker Prize will go to Adam Fould's The Quickening Maze. (Although secretly I think Tarquin's choice may be right).

Lists to come later.

Thanks for thinking of this, Kevin. I'm horrible at predicting things, but since I notice that a of couple people have already predicted Hilary Mantel, I suppose conventional wisdom would dictate that she has no chance of winning? LOL, I say that because it just seems unlikely that the book so many predict at this stage actually goes on to win! (Sorry, Hilary.) I'm also not very bullish on A.S. Byatt. Only two writers have won the Booker twice, and both (Coetzee and Carey) were multiple nominees. Hasn't Byatt only been shortlisted (and subsequently won) once? For her to win a second Booker on her second nomination, the novel would pretty much have to be a masterpiece. I'm not sure her latest fits that bill, though it seems to have been pretty well reviewed.

I have a vague notion that the shortlist will be heavy on female writers. (This seems to be a very ripe year for female Commonwealth fiction.) On paper, you would have to consider Sarah Waters and Colm Toibin good bets to win, if shortlisted. Both would be making their third appearance for the prize, and only ten novelists have been shortlisted three times. But, in my view, neither has come up with their best work this year, so I'm not keen on either one's chances.

Another previous winner, Margaret Atwood, is also vying to match Iris Murdoch's record for most shortlist appearances, six. And if William Trevor gets the nod this year, he would tie Atwood and poor Beryl Bainbridge's count of five. Someone here made the humorous observation that, since 2005, the Booker has alternated winners between Irish writers and writers of Indian heritage. Well, it's 2009, so, by that flimsy logic, I'm predicting William Trevor's "Love and Summer" to win. Ha! (And since Alice Munro won the Man International Booker, it would be somewhat fitting to have two of the world's master short story writers win a Booker in the same year.)

KevinfromCanada
Great idea and thanks.I'm not quite ready for my shortlist predicitons yet but I'm going to say that
Colm Toibin Brooklyn will be the winner.

With apologies for treading on bookermt's heels, and even though I am only part of the way through it, I am slipping in another entry for Toibin's Brooklyn for the ultimate win. Not only is it beautifully written by an author who seems well-regarded by Booker judges past, but Toibin can actually write female characters that ring true -- a skill that I hope will be in more abundant supply in this year than it was in last.